Friday, September 30, 2011

Week 4 Picks/Spread

@Chicago (-6.5) over Carolina
- I really want to take the Bears this week as my "lock of the week" for the ESPN Eliminator Challenge... but I just can't do it. This Offensive Line has too many issues, and Cam Newton has too much potential to be "unpredictably good" to put my faith in Chicago. That said, the Bears are a better team and win in a close game. Bears by 7.

Buffalo (-3) over @Cincinnati
- Another game I'd like to take as my lock would be Buffalo. After beating New England, you'd think that Cincinnati would be an easy matchup for the Bills; however, the Buffalo just isn't quite good enough on Defense for me to put my faith in them as my lock of the week. I actually like the Bengals' Defense; I think Cincinnati will slow down the hot offense of the Bills, but ultimately I think Buffalo wins a close one.

Tennessee over @Cleveland (1.5)
Straight up: Tennessee - This is a tough game to pick. Two former Fantasy Studs at RB are both in a cloudy situation; Peyton Hillis (illness) hasn't gained top form, but returns to the lineup for the Browns, while Chris Johnson (possible heavy pockets) has started slow to start 2011. I expect a little more CJ2K than Hillis in this one, and I think the Titans' good play on Defense will continue. TEN wins, ugly.

@Dallas (-1.5) over Detroit

- The Lions are definitely playing better, more consistent, football than the Cowboys right now. But I'm a Tony Romo believer, he's going to keep up his good play throughout this year. Jared Allen killed Detroit's Offensive Line last week, which isn't good with DeMarcus Ware on tap. The way to beat Detroit's Defense is through the air, which is a good thing for Dallas. Cowboys in a great game.

Minnesota (-1.5) over @Kansas City
- Neither team is playing very well right now. The Vikings continually do everything in their power to lose games, so I guess at least they're consistent. But the Chiefs are an absolute mess right now. There should be a sign on Toby Gerhart's back that says "Take me out, Put 28 back in" as a reminder to Leslie Frazier. Peterson goes off in this one, Vikings beat K.C. easily.

Washington (-1.5) over St.Louis
- This is yet another tough game to pick; the Rams have been largely disappointing following an Offseason in which many people picked St.Louis to win the NFC West. St.Louis's cornerbacks are absolutely awful right now, so Rex Grossman should be a good start for Fantasy this week. The Rams don't have enough on Offense to win right now, Redskins win.

@Philadelphia (-8.5) over San Francisco
- I think the 49ers have a good enough Defense to slow down the Philadelphia attack. With an uneasy Vick under Center, the Eagles will (or at least should) rely more on LeSean McCoy. If McCoy can shoulder the load for Philly, the Eagles win. If San Fran can shut him down, and Vick is unable to get rid of the ball and find open guys, an upset may be in order. I stick with the most likely scenario, Philadelphia wins by 10.

New Orleans (-7) over @Jacksonville
- The Jaguars are playing well on Defense. There. I started off with something positive about Jacksonville. The Saints are a better team than the Jags, their Offense will beat the Jags' Defense, and their Defense will easily handle Gabbert and the Jags' Offense. Enough said - Saints win easily.

@Houston (-4) over Pittsburgh
- This is an interesting game to me. I want to see the Texans take a step forward with a couple wins against good teams, and I think this may be a good time to do it. The Steelers' poor secondary may be exposed against Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and the Houston air attack. If Williams & Watt (Should be an electric company) can beat PIT's line and put pressure on Ben, the Texans will win. I like the home team; HOU by a TD.

@Arizona over New York Giants (-1.5)
Straight up: Arizona - I'm not a huge fan of the Cardinals right now. That said, I'm still not on the Giants' bandwagon either. Eli Manning has silenced the doubters and started 2011 on a hot streak, and I think he'll continue his solid play against a shaky Arizona secondary. The Cardinals are going to be fired up for this one after a tough loss against Seattle. Arizona by a FG.

Atlanta (-4.5) over @Seattle
- This one looks easy on paper, but it smells a little like an upset. Following the Vick fiasco, the Falcons were able to return to being a relevant NFL team by utilizing a power run game behind the bowling ball known as Michael Turner. Suddenly, by drafting Julio Jones, Atlanta seems to think they should play like the pass-happy Green Bay Packers. While the Seattle Defense could shut down Atlanta, the Falcons are simply a much better football team. Falcons by 10.

@Green Bay (-12.5) over Denver
- This is the safest bet of the week. Elvis Dumervil may give the Packers some problems in this one; I think starting RT Bryan Bulaga will miss this game, so in that case, Marshall Newhouse would be making his 1st career start. TE Jermichael Finley had a breakout game (3 TD) last week, and he will follow that performance with another big game here. James Starks played poorly last week against the Bears, but I think he has multiple TDs in this one. Packers in a blowout.

New England (-4.5) over @Oakland
- Last week, the Raiders came through for me as my upset special by beating the Jets. Unfortunately for Oakland, they play against Tom Brady this week. Although he tossed 4 INTs last week in a loss to the Buffalo Bills, Brady rarely loses two game in a row. The Patriots will torch the Raiders' secondary; Oakland's elite running game won't be enough to keep up with the New England air attack. Patriots by 10.

@San Diego (-7) over Miami
- The Chargers are always an inconsistent team early in the season; they seem to play to their competition. One week San Diego plays neck-and-neck against New England, and the next week the Chargers almost lose one to the lowly Chiefs. Miami could pull this one off if they can finally put a full game together, but their Defense hasn't been able to stop anyone this season. Too much Rivers for Miami. Chargers 31, Dolphins 20.

New York Jets over @Baltimore (3.5)
Straight up: Baltimore - Rex is coming off a disappointing loss against Oakland, so he'll be fired up for this primetime game against his former team. I don't care how motivated a head coach may or may not be, Ray Lewis will have his squad ready to play come Sunday night. Ray Rice must be licking his chops when he watches the film of Darren McFadden run through gaping holes in New York's defense last week. Ravens solve Sanchez, Baltimore wins by 3.

Monday Night (4-0) :
@Tampa Bay (-10) over Indianapolis
I decided on the Bucs as my Eliminator Challenge "lock" this week. This will mark the 3rd time in 4 weeks that the team playing against the Colts will be my lock pick (Houston in week 1, Pittsburgh in week 3.) Josh Freeman has started slow, to the tune of only 2 TD and 4 INT through 3 games. However, I have enough faith in him this week to start him in Fantasy over red-hot Ryan Fitzpatrick. Freeman and struggling WR Mike Williams will both get back on track against Indy. Bucs 31, Colts 17.


Week 4 Lock: Tampa Bay over Indy.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Week 3 Picks: Results

@Buffalo over New England (-8.5)
@Cincinnati (-2.5) over San Francisco
Miami over @Cleveland (-2.5)
@Tennessee (-6.5) over Denver
Detroit (-3.5) over @Minnesota
@New Orleans (-4.0) over Houston
@Philadelphia over NY Giants (No Line)
@Carolina (-3.5) over Jacksonville
@Oakland over NY Jets (-3.5)
Baltimore (-4) over @St. Louis
@San Diego (-14.5) over Kansas City
Green Bay (-3.5) over @Chicago
Arizona (-3.5) over @Seattle
Atlanta over @Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over @Indianapolis

Monday Night (4-0) :
@Dallas over Washington (No Line)

Week 3 Record: 11-5
Against spread: 8-8

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Week 3 Picks/Spread

@Buffalo over New England (-8.5)
Straight up: New England - While Brady has looked... like Brady... the Patriots Defense hasn't been quite as impressive through two weeks. I think the Pats put up close to 40, but Fitzpatrick and the Bills can put up enough points to keep this one close. Pats by 7.

@Cincinnati (-2.5) over San Francisco
- Neither team has been overly impressive thus far, but Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has been a pleasant surprise for the Bengals. I see more of Dalton-to-Green in this one, while San Fran's Offense continues to struggle. I could see this going either way, but at home, I like Cincinnati by 6.

Miami over @Cleveland (-2.5)
Straight up: Miami - Being the away team looks like a good thing for Miami; the Dolphins have lost 10 of their last 11 at home. Coming off a 100-yard game, I think Daniel Thomas has another impressive game. Could be an ugly game, with two subpar Offenses, but I think Miami wins this one by a Field Goal.

@Tennessee (-6.5) over Denver
- The Titans surprised everyone last week by coming out and stomping on the Baltimore Ravens. A rejuvenated Matt Hasselbeck has found Kenny Britt frequently this year, but a healthy Champ Bailey could put a fork in that. I still think the Titans are a better team; Tennessee by a TD.

Detroit (-3.5) over @Minnesota
- I think the Vikings will play well in this one; if the line on this game was a little higher, I might have picked Minnesota to cover. However, the Lions are a better team than the Vikings - plain and simple. Yet another big game from Stafford, and the Lions win by 10.

@New Orleans (-4.0) over Houston
- First of all, I really like the Texans this year. I think their Defense will take a big step forward, and they'll be a true contender in the AFC. However, this is the first true test for that Defense (I don't consider a Manning-less Indy and Miami as true tests...) The Saints can spread anyone out and put up points. New Orleans by 7.

@Philadelphia over NY Giants (No Line)
- It sounds like Vick will be ready to play this weekend, which is not what the Giants wanted to hear. I don't like what I've seen from Eli Manning going back through the Preseason. Vick, LeSean, DeSean, Maclin... too much speed on the field for the hobbled New York Defense. Eagles win by at least a TD.

@Carolina (-3.5) over Jacksonville
- Cam Newton has been incredible through two weeks. He picked apart a bad Arizona Defense for over 400 yards, then threw for over 400 last week against the defending Super Bowl champs. Gabbert makes his first career start this week, but falls short. Panthers by 7.

@Oakland over NY Jets (-3.5)
Straight up: Oakland - The Jets saw a Win fall into their lap in Week 1 against the Cowboys, then beat up on a porous Jacksonville team in Week 2. The Raiders have looked decent in both games thus far, and I think they pull off the upset at home here. Big game for McFadden - Oakland by a 6.

Baltimore (-4) over @St. Louis
The Ravens went down to Tennessee and totally laid an egg against the Titans; I think they rebound this week against St. Louis. On a short week for the Rams, I think Ray Rice puts up huge numbers for Baltimore. Still think the Rams could be a decent team this year, but I like the Ravens by 10.

@San Diego (-14.5) over Kansas City
Wow, two weeks into 2011 and the defending AFC West Champs are 14.5 point underdogs. After losing Jamaal Charles, the Offense will rely even more on QB Matt Cassell. (Gulp.) Huge day from the San Diego Offense in this one: Chargers-38, Chiefs 13.

Green Bay (-3.5) over @Chicago
There's no question the Packers are a better football team than the Bears; however, weird things happen on Soldier Field. No matter how crisp the Green Bay Offense is coming into when they play Chicago, it always seems to take a step back against the Bears. The X-factor this week is Jermichael Finley; he went over 100 yards and had a TD called back when he was healthy at Chicago last year. Green Bay wins by 7.

Arizona (-3.5) over @Seattle
Simply put, there's no way the Seahawks can cover Larry Fitzgerald. Their D-Backs have got to be among the worst in the league. Seattle may be the league's worst team overall, but being at home, they may have a chance in this one. I think it's pretty close, but the Cards win this one by 7+.

Atlanta over @Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Straight up: Atlanta - This is a tough game to pick. I can come up with reasons to pick either team here; the Bucs return home after an intense comeback win at Minnesota, and the Falcons are flying high after beating Vick and the Eagles. Just going with my gut feeling here, Falcons by a Field Goal.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over @Indianapolis
With Kerry Collins at Quarterback, the Colts are simply no longer a good team on Offense. This Steeler Defense is just too good to lose a game like this. The only thing the Colts have going for them is that relentless pass rush; however, I say Pittsburgh wins this one by 21.

Monday Night (3-0) :
@Dallas over Washington (No Line)
The Redskins have been a lot better than most people expected thus far. I think their Defense is for real, but I'm still not aboard the Rex Grossman Bandwagon. I am, however, a huge believer in Tony Romo. I think he gets way too much criticism, and he's a good QB when he's healthy. Cowboys win by 10.


Week 3 Lock: Pittsburgh over Indy

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Week 2 Picks: Results

KEY:
- Correct
- Incorrect
- Correct; incorrect vs. Spread

@Buffalo (-3) over Oakland
@Detroit (-8) over Kansas City
Baltimore (-6) over @Tennessee
Cleveland (2.5) over @Indianapolis
Tampa Bay over @Minnesota (-3)
@New Orleans (-7) over Chicago
@NY Jets (-9.5) over Jacksonville
@Pittsburgh (-14.5) over Seattle
@Washington (-3.5) over Arizona
Green Bay (-10) over @Carolina
Dallas (-3) over @San Francisco
@Denver (-4) over Cincinnati
@Miami over Houston (-3)
@New England (-7) over San Diego
@Atlanta over Philadelphia (-2.5)

Monday Night (2-0) :
@New York Giants (-6.0) over St.Louis


Week 2 Record: 14-2
Against spread: 8-6-2

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Packers: CB Williams Out @ CAR

CB Tramon Williams (shoulder) will miss the team's game today at Carolina. While Tramon being out clearly downgrades the Green Bay pass defense, I still think the Packers have enough to slow Cam Newton and the Panther passing attack. I'm anxious to see how the team tries to compensate for this loss; whether they insert up-and-down CB Jarrett Bush as their nickel CB or if they utilize a third Safety and use Woodson more on the outside.

Anyone who watches the Packers realizes that CB Charles Woodson is used more as a linebacker or safety than a true Cornerback. However, with Williams being out, I could see the Packers deciding that they're better off with Woodson as a cover corner than Jarrett Bush.

In this scenario, two guys between Nick Collins, Morgan Burnett, and Charlie Peprah would account for both safety spots, and the other would be used in the box in Woodson's usual role. Luckily, I think Clay Matthews is in for a huge day against an inexperienced OT Byron Bell, so the pass rush should cover up some holes in the secondary. We'll see what the plan is soon, as we're less than an hour from Kickoff.

Week 2 Picks/Spread

@Buffalo (-3) over Oakland
- I started Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB this week, so he better do well. Don't think he'll have another 4 TD 0 INT game, but I really think he'll do well against shaky Nnamdi-less OAK Defense. I think the Bills have a chance to be a .500 team this year. Buffalo by a TD, and the Bills are 2-0... wait, what?

@Detroit (-8) over Kansas City
- 8 points is a big spread, but I'll eat the points on this. This is my lock of of the week for the Eliminator Challenge on ESPN (Trying to save PIT, GB, BAL, etc for later.) A little uneasy about putting all my trust in the Lions, but I feel good about this one. Another big game from Stafford, Lions start 2-0.

Baltimore (-6) over @Tennessee
- More impressive team in Week 1 than the Baltimore Ravens? May be a couple arguments, but the Ravens looked tough against the Steelers. Big game from Ray Rice; Titans might put up a fight early, but Baltimore wins by more than a TD.

Cleveland (2.5) over @Indianapolis
- The Browns struggled last week against Cincinnati; many people even went as far as to pick Cleveland as their lock of the week for Week 1. Without Peyton Manning, I think this Colts team is one of the worst 5-8 teams in football. Cleveland wins this one in a close, ugly game.

Tampa Bay over @Minnesota (-3)
Straight up: T.B. - The Buccaneers got somewhat of a tough draw to start out their season. After suffering a tough home loss to the up and coming Lions, they have to travel north to the Metrodome in Week 2. Blount gets it going against a Viking Defense that allowed over 200 yards rushing in Week 1. Tampa by 7.

@New Orleans (-7) over Chicago
- This spread makes the pick difficult for me. The Bears always seem to make games close, but I'm going to eat the spread and go with the Saints at home. Brees picked apart a good Green Bay Defense in Week 1, and I think it's more of the same this week. Bears keep it close throughout, but New Orleans by 10 in the end.

@NY Jets (-9.5) over Jacksonville
- Another example of the spread making this pick difficult. The Jets didn't really overly impress me in their Week 1 win over Dallas, but Jacksonville is starting Luke McCown and simply isn't a very good team. Jets get the run game going behind Greene/LT, New York wins by 10 or 14.

@Pittsburgh (-14.5) over Seattle
- Vegas really hates the Seahawks this week. Ever seen a team lose 35-7, and then be favored the next week by 14.5 points? Me neither. That being said, this team should be hungry for their home opener; Rashard Mendenhall has a monster game. Pittsburgh in a blowout.

@Washington (-3.5) over Arizona
- Cam Newton lit up the Cardinals in his NFL debut; The Arizona Pass Defense is pretty poor, and Rex Grossman looked pretty good against the depleted Giants last week. I don't think Grossman is the difference today, it'll be Tim Hightower with the big game. Redskins by a TD.

Green Bay (-10) over @Carolina
- The Packers Offense looked like they were in midseason form in Week 1 against the Saints; Cam Newton impressed in his debut at Arizona. I think Newton struggles this week against possibly the league's best Secondary in the Packers. A lot of Rodgers to Finley; big game from Starks. Packers in a blowout.

Dallas (-3) over @San Francisco
- I thought the Cowboys looked like the better team last week against the Jets; they just completely collapsed in the 4th Quarter. It wouldn't shock me to see San Fran pull off the upset at home, but I think Dallas has too many weapons for the 49ers. For fantasy, I'd start Felix Jones this week. Boys by 6.

@Denver (-4) over Cincinnati
- No Brandon Lloyd, and without Knowshon Moreno... the Broncos will be a little shorthanded against the Bengals. Frankly, I don't like either team here, but I'll go with the home team. Eddie Royal comes back from the dead in Lloyd's absence, and the Broncos win by a TD.

@Miami over Houston (-3)
Straight up: Miami. - The Texans are definitely a good football team, especially with Arian Foster expected to make his season debut at Miami this week. However, Miami's looked good in defeat last week, and I think their Defense is a lot better than their Week 1 performance suggested. Miami wins at home in a close game.

San Diego over @New England (-7)
Straight up: New England. - This is a tough game to predict; I'm taking the Chargers against the spread (NE by 7) because I think it'll be a close game, regardless of the winner. It wouldn't shock me to see San Diego pull off the upset, but Brady is too good at home. New England 27, San Diego 24.

@Atlanta over Philadelphia (-2.5)
Straight up: Atlanta - Another tough game to predict; the Falcons and Matt Ryan are tough to beat at home, but the Eagles are hard to match up against for opposing Defenses. Vick dazzles in his return to Atlanta, but Michael Turner pounds the middle of that Eagles Defense and Atlanta wins by a Field Goal.

Monday Night (2-0) :
St. Louis over @New York Giants (-6)
Straight up: New York Giants. I think the Giants win this game at home in a close game, but I'll take the Rams against the spread. New York bounces back with a better game Offensively than in Week 1 at Washington. St. Louis will miss Steven Jackson, and it'll be too much to put on Sam Bradford's shoulders. Giants by 3.


Week 2 Lock: Detroit over Kansas City

Sunday, September 11, 2011

New Kickoff Rule: Week 1 Aftermath

So most people thought that the new Kickoff rule that required teams to kick off from the 35 yard-line would predominantly take away the kick return from the game. While touchback numbers are up, it sure seems to me that the kick return is still a major part of the game... a huge part of the game.

On Thursday night against the Saints, Packers rookie WR Randall Cobb took a Kickoff 108 yards to the house. On Sunday, Minnesota's Percy Harvin took the opening kickoff back 103 yards for a TD and San Francisco's Ted Ginn took a kick 102 yards for a TD. Three Kick Return TDs in Week 1 certainly suggests that the play is here to stay.

I'm not saying the Kickoff rule won't have any effect on kick returns throughout this year. However, let's let this thing play out for a while before ridiculing the NFL for amending the rule. I heard people complaining about the new rule as soon as it was announced publicly, and I said the same thing then. How can we complain about the NFL changing a rule that we hadn't even seen put into effect yet? Time will tell whether or not the rule has a lasting effect on kick returns, but three electric Week 1 TDs suggest that the kick return is here to stay.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

GB-NO Recap: Jermichael Finley

While Finley's final statistics in this game may not have caught many eyes, his impact on the game was undeniable. After replaying the game multiple times, it's incredible how much attention J-Mike demands when he's on the field. Normally when your Tight End catches only 3 balls, that's a little less than you'd hope for, but Finley demands so much attention, that he leaves other parts of the field unattended by the Defense.

If you recorded the game, take the time to watch Finley on every offensive snap. Wherever he went, so did Saints SS Roman Harper. It's a good thing New Orleans isn't in Green Bay's division, or else Harper's prematurely grey-ing hair may be a head full. The Saints often had a Cornerback line up on Finley when he was split out wide, along with Harper shadowing Finley over the top. It's hard to expect any one guy to match up with a guy like Jermichael Finley; on one first quarter play in particular, Finley was blanketed by Harper on a vertical route, but it just wasn't enough to stop a perfectly thrown back-shoulder pass from Rodgers. Jermichael adjusted beautifully and snatched the ball before Harper could even snap his head around.

Finley finished with 3 catches for 53 yards... all in the first quarter. You can bet J-Mike is looking to build on that, heading into a favorable matchup for the whole Packer Offense against Carolina next week.

The Packers struggled early last season in their red-zone efficiency; the team often settled for field goals because of their non-existent run game and lack of a true red-zone pass catcher. Sure, they still had capable TE's Donald Lee, Andrew Quarless, and Tom Crabtree, but Finley gives them a jump-ball threat who has an advantage over any one Defensive Back in the NFL. Not only is Finley back in uniform, but the Packers also feature an improved ground game both with the return of Ryan Grant, and the emergence of James Starks. This Offense is good. Very good.