Thursday, September 22, 2011

Week 3 Picks/Spread

@Buffalo over New England (-8.5)
Straight up: New England - While Brady has looked... like Brady... the Patriots Defense hasn't been quite as impressive through two weeks. I think the Pats put up close to 40, but Fitzpatrick and the Bills can put up enough points to keep this one close. Pats by 7.

@Cincinnati (-2.5) over San Francisco
- Neither team has been overly impressive thus far, but Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has been a pleasant surprise for the Bengals. I see more of Dalton-to-Green in this one, while San Fran's Offense continues to struggle. I could see this going either way, but at home, I like Cincinnati by 6.

Miami over @Cleveland (-2.5)
Straight up: Miami - Being the away team looks like a good thing for Miami; the Dolphins have lost 10 of their last 11 at home. Coming off a 100-yard game, I think Daniel Thomas has another impressive game. Could be an ugly game, with two subpar Offenses, but I think Miami wins this one by a Field Goal.

@Tennessee (-6.5) over Denver
- The Titans surprised everyone last week by coming out and stomping on the Baltimore Ravens. A rejuvenated Matt Hasselbeck has found Kenny Britt frequently this year, but a healthy Champ Bailey could put a fork in that. I still think the Titans are a better team; Tennessee by a TD.

Detroit (-3.5) over @Minnesota
- I think the Vikings will play well in this one; if the line on this game was a little higher, I might have picked Minnesota to cover. However, the Lions are a better team than the Vikings - plain and simple. Yet another big game from Stafford, and the Lions win by 10.

@New Orleans (-4.0) over Houston
- First of all, I really like the Texans this year. I think their Defense will take a big step forward, and they'll be a true contender in the AFC. However, this is the first true test for that Defense (I don't consider a Manning-less Indy and Miami as true tests...) The Saints can spread anyone out and put up points. New Orleans by 7.

@Philadelphia over NY Giants (No Line)
- It sounds like Vick will be ready to play this weekend, which is not what the Giants wanted to hear. I don't like what I've seen from Eli Manning going back through the Preseason. Vick, LeSean, DeSean, Maclin... too much speed on the field for the hobbled New York Defense. Eagles win by at least a TD.

@Carolina (-3.5) over Jacksonville
- Cam Newton has been incredible through two weeks. He picked apart a bad Arizona Defense for over 400 yards, then threw for over 400 last week against the defending Super Bowl champs. Gabbert makes his first career start this week, but falls short. Panthers by 7.

@Oakland over NY Jets (-3.5)
Straight up: Oakland - The Jets saw a Win fall into their lap in Week 1 against the Cowboys, then beat up on a porous Jacksonville team in Week 2. The Raiders have looked decent in both games thus far, and I think they pull off the upset at home here. Big game for McFadden - Oakland by a 6.

Baltimore (-4) over @St. Louis
The Ravens went down to Tennessee and totally laid an egg against the Titans; I think they rebound this week against St. Louis. On a short week for the Rams, I think Ray Rice puts up huge numbers for Baltimore. Still think the Rams could be a decent team this year, but I like the Ravens by 10.

@San Diego (-14.5) over Kansas City
Wow, two weeks into 2011 and the defending AFC West Champs are 14.5 point underdogs. After losing Jamaal Charles, the Offense will rely even more on QB Matt Cassell. (Gulp.) Huge day from the San Diego Offense in this one: Chargers-38, Chiefs 13.

Green Bay (-3.5) over @Chicago
There's no question the Packers are a better football team than the Bears; however, weird things happen on Soldier Field. No matter how crisp the Green Bay Offense is coming into when they play Chicago, it always seems to take a step back against the Bears. The X-factor this week is Jermichael Finley; he went over 100 yards and had a TD called back when he was healthy at Chicago last year. Green Bay wins by 7.

Arizona (-3.5) over @Seattle
Simply put, there's no way the Seahawks can cover Larry Fitzgerald. Their D-Backs have got to be among the worst in the league. Seattle may be the league's worst team overall, but being at home, they may have a chance in this one. I think it's pretty close, but the Cards win this one by 7+.

Atlanta over @Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Straight up: Atlanta - This is a tough game to pick. I can come up with reasons to pick either team here; the Bucs return home after an intense comeback win at Minnesota, and the Falcons are flying high after beating Vick and the Eagles. Just going with my gut feeling here, Falcons by a Field Goal.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over @Indianapolis
With Kerry Collins at Quarterback, the Colts are simply no longer a good team on Offense. This Steeler Defense is just too good to lose a game like this. The only thing the Colts have going for them is that relentless pass rush; however, I say Pittsburgh wins this one by 21.

Monday Night (3-0) :
@Dallas over Washington (No Line)
The Redskins have been a lot better than most people expected thus far. I think their Defense is for real, but I'm still not aboard the Rex Grossman Bandwagon. I am, however, a huge believer in Tony Romo. I think he gets way too much criticism, and he's a good QB when he's healthy. Cowboys win by 10.

Week 3 Lock: Pittsburgh over Indy

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