Saturday, October 8, 2011

Week 5 Picks/Spread

Philadelphia (-2.5) over @Buffalo
- The Eagles are among the most disappointing teams in the league thus far; The Dream Team has been more of a nightmare through 4 games. I think Philly will score at will on Buffalo's shaky Defense, but the Bills have enough on Offense to keep it close. Eagles win a close one.

@Indianapolis (-2.5) over Kansas City
- In their Monday Night matchup against Tampa, Indy looked a little better on Offense with Curtis Painter under center. The core of this team has been dismantled by injuries, but fortunately the Chiefs are a beatable team for the Colts. Colts win a close, ugly game.

Arizona over @Minnesota (-2.5)
Straight up: Arizona - I've put too much faith in the Vikings lately. I don't think their 0-4 record adequately reflects the talent level on their roster. However, after blowing so many leads this year I have to go with the hungry Arizona Cardinals coming off a controversial loss to the Giants. Minnesota plays them tough, but Arizona wins by a FG.

@NY Giants (-10) over Seattle
- This is my survivor pick of the week; I'm not fully aboard the Giants bandwagon, but I just can't see the lowly Seahawks traveling all the way from Washington state to New York and then beating the Giants. Big game from Hakeem Nicks, New York wins by 2 TD.

@Pittsburgh (-3) over Tennessee
- With James Harrison out and Rashard Mendenhall likely out as well, the Steelers better not take the Titans lightly this week. This was a tough game to pick because I'm not very high on Pitt right now, and Tennessee's playing well. Pitt's tough to beat at home though, and that was the deciding factor. Isaac Redman should have a productive day if Mendenhall doesn't go, PIT by 7.

New Orleans (-6.5) over @Carolina
- I said last week that Atlanta better be aware of a potential upset at Seattle, and they barely escaped with a 30-28 win. This game feels similar to me. I'm going with the Saints like I went with the Falcons, but I think Carolina has enough on Offense to give New Orleans a competitive game. Saints win by 7.

Cincinnati over @Jacksonville (-2.5)
Straight up: Cincinnati - This has more to do with how poor Jacksonville is on offense than it has to do with how good the Bengals may be. With that said, I've been impressed with Andy Dalton as a rookie starting QB. This is going to be an ugly game between these two sluggish Offenses, but I like the Bengals by a TD.

Oakland over @Houston (-6)
Straight up: Oakland - The Raiders catch a break by seeing the Texans in their first game without Andre Johnson in the lineup. R.I.P. Al Davis; it's easy to make an Al Davis joke about his personnel decisions within the past decade, but he did a lot of good for the Raiders organization. Oakland's a good enough team to push for a Wild Card this year. Raiders run all over the Texans; they win this game in Houston.

@San Francisco (-3) over Tampa Bay
- The 49ers are quietly 3-1 and having a pretty solid season. Tampa Bay won in not-so-impressive fashion on Monday Night against Indianapolis. In this one, the Bucs will have to play a lot better against a legit 49ers' Defense. Even though he's been slightly disappointing in the league so far, I have a good feeling about Michael Crabtree in this one. San Fran has just enough on Offense to win this game, 49ers win by 6.

San Diego (-4) over @Denver
- I considered the Chargers as my Week 5 survivor pick, but I'm trying to hold off on them until later in the year because they always seem to blow a game they should win early in the season. Denver's defense just isn't good by any stretch of the imagination, and the Chargers are capable of putting up a lot of points on anyone. Big days from Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews, Chargers-35 over Broncos-24.

NY Jets over @New England (-9)
Straight up: New England - With Nick Mangold back in the lineup for the Jets and with Jerod Mayo out of the lineup for the Pats, I think Gang Green will be able to consistently move the ball on New England. The Jets have a good enough Defense to slow down the Pats' passing attack. I like the Pats to win, but I'll take the Jets to cover the spread. NE-27, NYJ-23.

Green Bay (-6) over @Atlanta
- From a fantasy standpoint, I like everyone involved the Passing Game for either team in this one. I think either Roddy White or Julio Jones will have a huge day, as the Falcons will be throwing the ball to keep pace with the Pack's Offense. Green Bay has too many weapons for the Falcons to completely stop; as much as Atlanta may think they're at the Packers' level, I completely disagree. Pack wins this one by a TD. Pack 34, Falcons 27.

Chicago over @Detroit (-5.5)
Straight up: Chicago - I'm really excited for this game. Detroit finally has a home game on Monday Night Football and they're 4-0 at the time, hosting the defending NFC North champion Bears. I think the Lions are much more of a legit threat in the NFC than the Bears are, but I think Detroit's Offense will be held back just a little by a stingy Bears Defense. Chicago makes you work for your points, so the explosive plays may not come easy. In a great game, I like CHI to win 27-26.

Week 5 Lock: NY Giants over Seattle

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